Archive for the ‘Blog’ Category

GameLook Today:Four trends will influence on the future of the social games industry

Today we pay highly attention to Mirae Asset’s raising their forecasts for China’s gaming industry growth this year. They have expected a growth of 28% for the online games industry, instead of the previous 23%; the total revenue of China’s online games industry would be 45 billion Yuan in 2011. They also said the web games industry would reach 6 billion Yuan and the social games industry 1 billion Yuan, increasing by four times compared with 2010.

GameLook believes the follow trends will influence on the future of the social games industry:

1. The openness of social network advertising and platforms.

Social games and web games are based on the browser, while the main difference between the two lies mainly in platforms and ways of promoting. Web games rely on “spam flows” to attract more users and social games depend on viral marketing on social network. If the cost is very close, more web games will launch on the social network in the future, and Tencent, Renren will be the preferred platforms. Tencent’s openness and monetization of SNS advertising will be very important for games companies.

2. The similarity of social games and web games.

Many social games companies’ products of 2011 have the quality of traditional web games, like player killing features and high ARPU, which is very similar to Kabam’s games on Facebook. The second generation of social games will be very similar to web games while also has the traditional viral characters.

3. Mobile devices’ promotion to the development of social games.

Mobile SNS platforms like DeNA、GREE、MIXI and Ameba are very successful in Japan; SNS games bring large revenue to Facebook and it is developing an iOS mobile platform “Sparta”. All these trends have influenced the domestic games industry: Tencent’s mobile platform is also under rapid growth. Mobile devices are natural SNS tools and they can best adapt to social games.

4. Tencent announced cooperation with Zynga during the Chinajoy and Cityville has come to Tencent’s Pengyou platform and later on QZone. More overseas social games companies will enter China’s market with more innovative games.

The social games industry will increase by four times in 2011 is very likely to happen, considering DeNA had reached the goal in one year and it only has 27 million users, Tencent, however, has 100 million active users.

GameLook Today:it is really a “FPS” year

This year’s ChinaJoy is over and its audience has not increased much, maybe it is because the B2B pavilion, CGBC and CGDC conference have attracted more insiders, which is good for ChinaJoy to improve its quality.

Action MMORPGs seem to be a new trend of this year’s ChinaJoy. Shanda Games showcased an XBOX action game and many other small companies followed suit. Thunder’s Final Combat is the most shining star of all FPS games at Chinajoy; this year will see 27 FPS games online and it is really a “FPS” year.

The most remarkable thing of this year’s ChinaJoy is that social games and web games’ conferences were held before others on the CGBC summit, which is consistent to the trend of global games industry. 150 guests joined the social games luncheon, which indicates the rising of social games and web games: more and more companies and investments are joining in.

GameLook Today:More overseas social game companies will enter Tencent’s platform

Today’s most important news is Zynga’s cooperation with Tencent. We noticed that Tencent had said Zynga was the first foreign game company entering Tencent’s platform; Zynga would not be the only foreign game company but it would always be the most important one. We can see that in the future more overseas social game companies will enter Tencent’s platform.

Tencent’s VP announced today that their open platform had nearly 80,000 registered developers since it launched a month ago. Currently 40,000 applications are entering the platform and 3 game applications have 10 million users respectively. Tencent’s social platform has 100 million active users and some games have already got revenue of 10 million Yuan.

Though the user base is quite large now, GameLook believes the income is far from reaching the peak. DeNA’s social games had revenue of just $5.6 million 2009Q3, while in 2011Q1 it was $393 million (as shown below). Thus Tencent’s platform will also enjoy a rapid growth stage. Who will be the winner depends on the game’s time of launching and the developer’s relationship with Tencent.

GameLook Today:Busy Week Coming,Chinajoy 2011

Recently, we have seen that a lot of new games have begun announcing info, including Blade & Soul, Saint Seiya, Dragon Ball online, and etc. No doubt, these new MMOs will attract lots of attention. In addition to the games just mentioned, today the movie Transformers III will also go live in China. Accompanied by this hot movie, NetDragon will also release its new game Transformers Online. As summer comes, the heat of games will spread over China again.

We also have seen that research institutes like CNNIC (China Internet Network Information Center), iResearch, Analysys International, also started focusing on game industry now and have just released some related market data. It seems like everybody burns money in this industry. No matter in China or some western countries, plenty of money has been put into the industry of mobile internet. Every day, there are business proposals sent to GameLook. However I haven’t found many proposals or companies attractive or valuable. Venture capitals are also scrambling for good projects. At least three projects have slipped through my fingers. What’s more, the top social game companies in China have all surpassed a valuation of 100 million US dollars. Maybe it is a big success, maybe it is a sign of bubbles.

It is very difficult to make the agenda for next week since there are too many activities, parties and forums… Besides CGBC (China Game Business Conference) and CGDC (China Game Developers Conference), I think there are 3 other activities that may be worth attending.

1. Cruise Ship Party organized by 265g.com at 18:00 July 28: many browser-based MMO companies and venture capital firms will attend. Of course, I will go too.

2. “100 Gamers Gathering” hosted by duowan.com: there will also be many company executives present.

3. Party held by IGDA (International Game Developers Association): it is kind like a gathering for outsourcing crew.

Although I did not find any party themed on social games. It will be a busy and precious week.

GameLook Today:it is the time to slow down

From the two reports of CNNIC and Analysys International, we find that both client games and mobile games have slowed down the momentum of growth, which indicates an even matured market. In the past 10 years, the Chinese game market was driven by the growth of players, which called “demographic dividend “. Now it is the time to slow down.

China’s mobile online gamers are mainly feature phone users and the number is small. While WiSTONE’s one mobile online game has generated 50 million RMB, the game’s income comes mainly from mobile version, webgame version and overseas market, which is another story.

A very evident thing is that when new games have more players, it becomes difficult to promote while the promotion cost could get even higher. New games, especially “highly efficient” webgames and social game, are taking the advantage of shorter product development cycle and lower cast for more players. Old games like ZT Online, CF, DNF and Legend are still very popular, which brings a lot of pressure on new games. So, new games should be well produced and have very good originality. To be sure, webgame will be the only type of some games.

Thunder has delayed its IPO to the evening of July 21. They will get $114 million and a new IT company will join the “listed club”. We look forward to its performance.

GameLook Today:Chinajoy coming soon

Sina launched it’s micro gaming platform yesterday and has aroused many attentions. I have noticed that many VPs of social gaming companies started to follow the weibo account of the platform. Sina has promised the platform will be free for one year, and then the ratio will be 7 to 3. Shanda Games has already confirmed that it will enter the open social gaming platform.

China’s net client games revenue has reached 8.76 billion RMB in Q2, 2011, according to Analysys International. Seasonal factors are not so obvious. Many new games will be launched after the Chinajoy 2011 (7.28-7.31). The summer vocation is very important to gaming companies.

NetDragon has predicted their 2011 mobile revenue will reach 10m RMB, inspiring though they could have done better. NetDragon’s smart phone business started long time ago while the mobile market in China still focus on feature phones. We believe the time for smart phones will come in late 2012.

GameLook Today: Tencent,Sina,Shanda,KUF2

Tencent has launched another open gaming platform (this time based on mobile browser), which shows its ambitions of becoming the number one in China’s Internet market. Tencent now has many open platforms, including QQ, Pengyou.com, Q+, Qzone, QQ micro-blog and QQ mobile browser. Weixin, Discuz and some others are coming soon. Tencent is faced with some problems brought by various platforms and different technical standards, and Tencent is working on it.
Sina is going to launch the Wei Credit system, indicating that Sina Weibo is speeding up monetization. While the APPs and games on Sina Weibo cannot make enough money, we look forward to Sina’s gaming platform.
Shanda Games has launched its light web game studio “UUGame”. More and more public companies have begun to focus on the new gaming segments, such as social games, web games and casual games. Cross-platform games are becoming the trend. While the key to success is good ideas in the gaming industry, capital sometimes does not work.
Excellent South Korea games always value the Chinese market, and Kingdom Under Fire II (KUF II) is one of them. It has been confirmed that KUF II will enter into China this year. NEXON’s Mabinogi Heroes has already been released yesterday, while Riot Games and Evony have celebrated success in the global market. Good games are always global.

GameLook Today:Tencent realized the Grand Slam of plagiarize

Tencent’s LOL touched 700K PCU after open beta on 25 May. This proved that LOL is a successful game. Today, Tencent starts the open beta test of NBA 2K online .The incredible popularity of basketball in Asia combined with the love of online games in that region makes this a very exciting project for 2K.

You always can see some similar gameplay between Tencent and other companies. MengSanGuo is similar to Dota and it ranks 9 in netbar’s Top20 popular online games .LOL placed 13 in netbar’s Top 20 list and we believed it will surpass MengSanGuo in a short time. Freestyle is a basketball games and rank 14 in netbar’s Top 20 list. The Tencent’s NBA 2K Online is also a basketball games .The happy time of Freestyle will not be too long.

Through these years of hard work, Tencent has copied all popular games in the ranklist and this is a bad news to other companies.

Shanda 2011 Allstar game will release nine new games and the official website of 2011 Allstar was launched in yesterday.Tera 、Dota2、RIFT was been putting into list for the players to guess.

Japan’s SRPG Web game Metal SAGA was been released on Renren .In past years, SEGA and Square Enix suffer a crushing defeat in Chinese game market .The Japanese game companies are changing itself positively in order to fit Chinese game market. As far as i know, a lot of Japanese game is web game and web game is suitable to Chinese market now.

GameLook Today:Gamewave is crazy,WoW is a joke

Some China-based webgame companies are really good at creating miracles by special ways of operating games. One of the best examples is Gamewave. Gamewave announced its seventh platform called 7711.com yesterday.It is very successful in business but seems so abnormal at the same time that even many experts in MMO industry can not understand their operation model. Yang Zhen, Vice President of Sina Games, once said to GameLook that “Perhaps, Sina could also build seven game websites like Gamewave” (of cause, it is just a joke). According to the information gathered, Gamewave has acquired several independent operation teams, but conducted independent accounting on each team’s profit in order to encourage inner competition. It is not a usual practice but has been proved to be a successful one. Other news even revealed that Gamewave also made an IPO plan.

GameLook Today:RPG web games growing rapidly this year

Web games are the most favorite to Chinese small and medium-sized game companies. The marketing is based on Internet advertising and it is viral-friendly. The way how they operate is also diverse. Today we have found that RPG web games growing rapidly this year and have the largest number. The strategy web games are on the rise. The success of Changyou’s DDTANK has also encouraged more and more developers working on leisure competitive web games, but too many low-quality copy-cats have emerged.It is a surprise that Blizzard merged Battle.Net of many countries.

GameLook Today: Social Game in China

For large listed online game companies in China, social games are a must at present. According to the CNNIC (China Internet Network Information Center), the number of social gamers in China reached 92 million in 2010, more than that of MMO players(reached 65 million in 2010). Players have begun to switch over to other game genres, especially social & web games (including the future mobile games).

GameLook Today:Japan VS China

I believe Japan’s mobile social game business will be the main opponent of China’s game companies, both in the international market and the mainland market. DeNA has bought a Chinese mobile community – tx. Com. Cn, and has launched mobage China Version; GREE has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Tencent in online games and mobile games (mainly on Android); CyberAgent is investing in CMNET(China Mobile Net) and has branch offices in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen; MIXI is relatively backward.

GameLook Today:Tencent falling love with KingSoft?

Today, a lot of news is about Tencent and Kingsoft.It is said that Tencent will invest in Kingsoft Network. This is very surprising news. Currently, the domestic game company does not exist the phenomenon that two companies holding each other‘s share and this is the first case in China game industry. Tencent spend $ 200 million in investment in May. Invest in Kingsoft suggest that Tencent is strengthen investment to get more apps and games.

GameLook Today:Everybody is opening in China

There is fierce competition of Chinese open platform . The large-scale platform including Tencent,Renren. com and Sina . The game companies is also opening platform ,such as Shanda ,NetEase .The itown of NetEase is been used to compete for casual community market leadership.The NetEase always concentrating heavily on developing MMOgames within a decade. The development of casual game market is still primary in China .There is no successdful causal game company like POPCAP in China .

GameLook Today:changing from Copy to Innovation

The Tencent will hold a conference of Open platform in July 21. With the releasing of QQtown and acting as an agent of iOS game The Three Kingdom TD ,the action of Tencent make Chinese developers feel nervous .Tencent is changing from copy to innovation now.The Changyou has deep pockets ,the investment of the conmpany is successive in recent.After spend $100 million on purchase Webgame Company 7road ,the Changyou announced that the company will invest $10 million to Thunder.